Forex Weekly Round Up 24 August 2015 – 28 August 2015

Fears about the Chinese economy sent markets into meltdown on Monday. The Shanghai Composite was down 8.7%, which wiped out all of its gains for year.

The People’s Bank of China cut its key-lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6% in an effort to calm stock markets after two days of turmoil. It is the fifth interest rate cut since November and took effect on Wednesday.

On Wednesday afternoon we saw the pound gain ground on the euro around 0.6% and U.K. mortgage approvals showed an increase in July to their highest level in 17 months. Banks approved 46,033 mortgages for house purchases; this is the highest number we have seen since February 2014. That was up from 44,802 in June and up 11% from 12 months ago.

Thursday afternoon’s strong growth domestic product figure (GDP) from the United States has pushed the GBPUSD rate to its lowest level since early July.

The US economy grew more than expected in the second quarter due bigger gains in consumer and business spending. This shows the US is back on track and increases the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in the US.

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Forex Weekly Round Up 17 August 2015 – 21 August 2015

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that there is clarity there cannot be a Greek debt haircut but added there’s room for an extension of Greek debt maturities.

The German parliament approved a third bailout for Greece on Wednesday after Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the country should get a new start. The Bundestag vote cleared one of the final obstacles to Greece getting funding so that it could make a 3.2 billion-euro (£2.3 billion) debt repayment to the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras resigned, hoping to strengthen his hold on power in snap elections after seven months in office in which he fought Greece’s creditors for a better bailout deal but had to cave in.

Tsipras submitted his resignation to President Prokopis Pavlopoulos and asked for the earliest possible election date, which is expected to be the 20th of September.

The pound hit a 7-week high yesterday against the dollar after an unexpectedly strong inflation report boosted the currency. The Consumer Prices Index grew by 0.1% which is better than forecast and up from 0.0% in June.

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Forex Weekly Round Up 10 August 2015 – 14 August 2015

The US unemployment rate, which is obtained from a separate survey of US households, held steady at 5.3% in July. Average hourly earnings of private-sector workers rose 5 cents, or 0.2%, last month to $24.99. From a year earlier, wages were up 2.1%, in line with the 2.0% pace during the six-year expansion

Greece and its international creditors sought to put the final touches to a multi-billion euro bailout on Monday to keep the country afloat and meet an important debt repayment to the European Central Bank which is due within days.

Greece’s bailout deal will next be reviewed in October. Greece’s eurozone creditors insisted they will not be discussing bailout relief before this month, with no promises on how soon any easing of Greece’s debt burden might come.

Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles stated that he almost voted yes to raising UK interest rates last week. He stated that there was a reasonable case for starting a gradual rate rise to avoid more rapid and impulsive rise in the future. Ian McCafferty voted for a rate rise but David Miles comment is an indication of the shifting balance. He chose to vote for a hold on rate rise as a result of the economic news that reduced the near term inflation profile such as low oil prices and a weak eurozone economy.

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Forex Weekly Round Up 3 August 2015 – 7 August 2015

Unemployment in the eurozone is neither improving nor getting worse, despite hopes that the latest figures would show a further drop in the jobless rate. The unemployment rate stayed at 11.1% in June from the same level the previous month. Economists had been expecting a small decrease in the rate to 11%. The lowest unemployment rate in the bloc in June was recorded in Germany (4.7%) and the Czech Republic is also faring well (4.9%).

The only piece of data for the pound on Monday was the release of the UK manufacturing PMI. UK manufacturing growth picked up in July, a survey has suggested, after a 26-month low in June.

The UK is set to be the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the second year running. Growth is expected to reach 2.5% this year according to the national institute of economic and social research.

We saw The Bank of England implement its “super Thursday” and release several key pieces of fundamental data in a shotgun approach at 12 noon. Most notably, one of its top policymakers backed an immediate move to hike interest rates as the BoE pointed to a possible increase in interest rates early next year. The bank also forecast a slow pick-up in inflation from zero thanks to a strong pound, expecting inflation to be back on target in two years’ time.

The Pound fell sharply across the board as most economists expected two or even three members of the Monetary Policy Committee to vote for a rate hike. The surprise 8-1 result prompted markets to push out their bets on a first rate hike; with only Ian McCafferty voted against the majority.

On Tuesday evening the dollar rose to its highest level in over three months after hawkish comments from a voting member of the US Federal Reserve’s policy setting committee. Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart said there would need to be a significant deterioration in economic activity to hold the Fed back from raising rates in September.

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Forex Weekly Round Up 27 July 2015 – 31 July 2015

The Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane has said that there is “no rush” to raise interest rates, as some members of the monetary policy committee appeared to be gearing up to vote for a rise next month.

The only piece of data concerning the pound on Monday was the release of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey, where order books at British Manufacturers shrunk to the lowest level in two years in July. This has been due to the recent strength of the pound proving too costly for importers of UK goods; economic uncertainty in the Eurozone is also dampening expectations.

UK economic growth accelerated in the second quarter of the year, helped by a big jump in oil and gas production as well as business services and finance sector strength. The 0.7% increase in gross domestic product came in line with consensus and marked a 10th straight expansion and followed a 0.4% advance in the previous three months.

US consumer sentiment plumbed its lowest level in 10 months, falling short of expectations for little change in July, as turmoil in Greece and China stirred global financial markets. The index of consumer confidence fell to 90.9 from 99.8 in June, according to the Conference Board. Economists had forecast the index to remain relatively stable at a reading of 100.

New figures out on Thursday showed that US economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at a 2.3% annual rate, with strong consumer spending offsetting weak business spending. The release fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates later this year, however the figure was slightly disappointing, as economists had expected a 2.6% rise in GDP.

In Europe, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras has said that he disagrees with the bailout proposals and will fight to overturn it. He also warned that that Greece’s Eurozone membership is still up in the air until the third bailout is agreed. Speculation is now growing that former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis could face prosecution over his plan to develop a parallel payment system.

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Forex Weekly Round Up 20 July 2015 – 24 July 2015

The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% last month after increasing 0.4% in May. Last month’s increase pushed the year-on-year CPI rate into positive territory for the first time since December.

Greece reopened its banks this week and ordered billions of euros owed to international creditors to be repaid on Monday in the first signs of a return to a normal way of life. Increases in value added tax agreed under the bailout terms also took effect, with VAT on processed food and public transport jumping to 23% from 13%.

UK government borrowing fell to £9.4bn in June, down £0.8bn from a year earlier, as income and corporation tax receipts rose to record levels. Income tax receipts rose to £11.5bn, while corporation tax brought in £1.7bn, both record monthly highs. It was lowest borrowing figure for June since 2008; however, analysts had been expecting it to drop further to £8.5bn.

In the financial year so far, borrowing has fallen by £6.1bn to £25.1bn. Public sector net debt at the end of June 2015 was £1.513 trillion, or 81.5% of annual UK economic output, up from 80.8% in May.

On Wednesday we had the Bank of England’s policy vote with all nine Bank of England policymakers voting to hold interest rates at 0.5% in July.

The Pound suffered on Thursday morning after the UK’s retail sales unexpectedly declined in June on a wide range of goods including food, furniture, sporting equipment and jewellery. Persistently low inflation and stronger wage growth are leaving Britons with more pounds to spend and helping them support expansion.

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Forex Weekly Round Up 13 July 2015 – 17 July 2015

European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker stated, “There will not be a Grexit” referring to the fear that Greece would have to leave the euro. Greece is expected to pass reforms demanded by the Eurozone by Wednesday. Parliaments in several Eurozone states also have to approve any new bailout.

Hours before the vote from Greek MP’s, Tsipras suffered a blow with the loss of a key minister, Nadia Valavani. The deputy finance minister resigned, stating it was impossible for her to keep serving in the government given the austerity measures Tsipras had agreed with their creditors. She warned the nation faced a crushing capitulation at the hands of its creditors in Brussels.

UK consumer price index inflation report fell to 0% from 0.1% in May, clothing and food prices were the main contribution to the change along with a smaller rise in air fares in June from this time last year.

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Forex Weekly Round Up 6 July 2015 – 10 July 2015

The Euro temporarily lost ground on Sunday night after 61.3% of Greeks voted “no” and to reject the austerity measures demanded by its international creditors during their referendum.

Greece’s new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, attended an emergency Greek summit with Eurogroup finance ministers and European leaders in Brussels last night. It’s the first round of serious talks since Greek voters resoundingly rejected the terms of a prior bailout offer that expired on June 30.

Chancellor George Osborne delivered the first Conservative budget for 20 years and, as predicted; the measures he unveiled were business-friendly.

Sterling lost ground yesterday morning against most currencies on the expectation that Chancellor Osborne would introduce more fiscal tightening measures in his budget (i.e increasing the rate of certain taxes and / or cutting government spending).

Some key points to note from the budget:

– Corporation tax is to be cut to 19% in 2017 and to 18% in 2020. This is seen as a move to make companies pay extra wages to the lowest earners.

– National living wage set at £9 from 2020. After the cut in corporation tax companies will be forced to pay their workers who are over 25 at least £7.20 an hour, rising to £9, by 2020.

– Public sector pay will increase by 1% a year for 4 years from 2016.

As widely expected the Bank of England kept interest rates at a record low, as its policymakers grappled with how to balance improving wage growth in Britain against more ominous signals from the global economy.

The Monetary Policy Committee left its Bank Rate at 0.5%, where it has been since the depths of the financial crisis more than six years ago, and made no statement.

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Market Bulletin – 6 July 2015

The Euro temporarily lost ground last night after 61.3% of Greeks voted “No” to reject the austerity measures demanded by its international creditors during their referendum.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said Greeks made a “brave choice” as thousands celebrated in the streets after hearing the final result despite European officials warning that it could see the country ejected from the Eurozone.

Greece’s governing Syriza party had campaigned for a “No”, saying that the bailout terms were humiliating. Mr Tsipras said late on Sunday that the Greeks had proved that “democracy won’t be blackmailed.”

To further add to the turmoil, Greece’s finance minister – who often clashed with creditors, resigned. Yanis Varoufakis wrote on his blog that he had been “made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings”.

This morning we learned Yanis Varoufakis has resigned saying it was felt his depature would be helpful in finding a solution to the country’s debt crisis.

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Forex Weekly Round Up 29 June 2015 – 3 July 2015

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has urged voters to reject creditors’ demands in a snap referendum on Greece’s debt crisis due on Sunday. Tsipras said a clear vote against austerity would help Greece negotiate a better settlement to the crisis.

Greece missed a repayment worth around 1.5 billion euros that was due to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, making it the first advanced nation to ever default on a debt to the global financial stability agency.

The Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said he will resign if the Greek people vote “yes” in Sunday’s referendum. But Varoufakis is confident the Greek people will vote “no” and not accept creditors’ demands. If he is wrong, he says the left-wing Syriza-led government will sign the agreement that was put to it last weekend.

The UK economy has grown faster than previously estimated in the first three months of the 2015. The Office for National Statistics said the economy grew by 0.4% in the quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 0.3%. Growth was boosted by a better performance from the construction industry than previously estimated. Annual growth to March was also revised up to 2.9% from 2.5% previously.

The construction sector continued to shake-off pre-election uncertainty last month. The Markit UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ index rose to 58.1 in June, from 55.9 a month earlier, and the fastest increase since February.

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