Britain had its smallest fiscal deficit for any May month since 2007 as tax revenue jumped, handing a boost to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne as he prepares to unveil the first Budget of the new Conservative-only government. Net borrowing excluding public-sector banks was 10.1 billion pounds compared with 12.4 billion pounds a year earlier.

On Monday, talks between Greece and the Eurogroup appeared to be progressing. From Monday morning’s open, the EUR made gains of almost 1% against the pound, and 0.7% against the dollar before the housing data was released.

On Wednesday evening hopes of a breakthrough between Greece and its creditors were dashed after a meeting between Eurozone finance ministers broke down after less than an hour. The stumbling block over reforms to pension cuts and tax hikes cropped up again when reforms submitted by Greece were sent back with a raft of suggested adjustments.

Thursday’s Eurogroup meetings again brought no fresh news on Greece ahead of a pivotal weekend for the Eurozone; they have just five days left of their current bailout programme with a default beckoning unless this cash for reform deal can be struck.

The only major data release for the US was slightly disappointing, with the weekly unemployment claims increasing by 3,000 applicants but still remaining at positive levels and in line with forecasts. This data did little to move the dollar on Thursday.

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Consumer confidence rose more than forecast in June, as Americans were the most upbeat about their wage prospects in seven years. Preliminary consumer sentiment index increased to 94.6, topping all estimates.

The Dollar lost ground on Wednesday night after a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled a pickup in the economy is keeping it on track to raise interest rates this year, though subsequent increases are likely to be more gradual than anticipated.

The week began with an extremely quiet day for the pound, with analysts being entirely sentiment driven. This was realised in the markets with the pound losing half a cent against both the EUR and USD during the morning session, with no data to support the pound.

Inflation rose by 0.1% in the year to May according the Office for National Statistics, up from -0.1% a month earlier and ending a brief spell of deflation.

The EUR had a good start to the week, gaining against a host of its major counterparts. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis said that there will be no chance of a ‘Grexit’, but is seeking an extended redemption period for Greek debt, according to reports.

On Thursday International Money Fund (IMF) boss Christine Lagarde warned there is “no period of grace” for Greece over a debt repayment deadline. Lagarde said Greece would be in default on its loans from the IMF if it failed to make a €1.6bn payment on 30 June.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.

On Monday, the US Dollar experienced a quiet day. Due to lack of data coming out of the US, the markets were sentiment driven and whilst slightly choppy throughout the session, GBP/USD closed at roughly the same levels as the opening price. The US sold $48bn dollars worth of 3 and 6-month bonds, pushing the yields to 0.015% and 0.080% respectively.

The UK’s biggest business body (CBI) said that it believes the economy will grow healthily for the remainder of the year, after stalling in the first three months. To the surprise of most economists, the UK economy grew by just 0.3% from January to March, its slowest rate since 2012.

The Pound strengthened after data on Tuesday showed Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed more than expected in April, suggesting that it might act as less of a brake on growth during the current quarter. The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s total trade deficit narrowed to 1.202 billion pounds in April from an upwardly revised 3.093 billion pounds in March, it’s lowest since March 2014.

The major talking point on Thursday was Greece, where major differences with their international creditors raised the pressure on the Athens government, as IMF negotiators walked out of debt talks in Brussels and flew home.

The surprise IMF announcement came as the European Union told leftist Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras bluntly to stop gambling with his cash-strapped country’s future and take crucial decisions needed to avert a devastating default.

Analysis of the markets for the next three months is further weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying Euros and Dollar strength is better for those who are selling Dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.

The US economy contracted in the first quarter as it buckled under the weight of unusually heavy snowfalls, a resurgent dollar and disruptions at West Coast ports, but activity has rebounded modestly.

A UK Manufacturers group (EEF) lowered their 2015 manufacturing output growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.7%. The pound lost ground on Monday against all of its major counterparts.

Thursday saw the bank of England Keep its interest rates on hold in the face of mixed signals about the strength of the UK’s recovery. The Bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to leave the rate where it has been for the last six years.

The Euro significantly strengthened during Tuesday’s session after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he had issued “a realistic proposal” to the country’s international creditors in an attempt to secure a deal over its debts.

However, on Friday, we learned Greece confirming they will not be making the €300 million payment to the IMF as they have found a loop hole that allows them to bundle the whole of June’s four payments together as one €1.6Bn payment at the end of the month.

After leaving interest rates at a record low 0.05%, the ECB raised its inflation forecast to 0.3% for this year, having previously put it at zero. They stated that its trillion-euro-plus asset-buying programme was paying off earlier than forecast, but had to be seen through.

Analysis of the markets for the next three months is further weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying Euros and Dollar strength is better for those who are selling Dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.

The bank holiday weekend provided a relatively quiet start to the week for the pound. Friday saw the public sector net borrowing figure come in at £6.038bn against a £7.9bn consensus, far better than expected.

Sterling hit its weakest point against the dollar since the aftermath of the UK’s national elections, after a speech by The Queen set in motion a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. A EU referendum by the end of 2017 is among a programme of new laws in the first Conservative Queen’s Speech in nearly two decades.

Gross domestic product rose 0.3% in the first quarter, matching an initial estimate, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Thursday. It was less than the 0.4% increase forecast by economists, however.

The bank holiday weekend also saw the release of US CPI, with core CPI being the highlight showing an increase of 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus month-on-month, which caused a rally of the dollar.

US Census Bureau data, on Tuesday, showed total durable goods demand declined 0.5%, as forecast. The drop in demand for total durable goods, which are goods that should last three years or more, followed a 5.1% jump in March that was the biggest since July and greater than previously reported.

Applications for US jobless benefits remained below 300,000 for the 12th straight week, signaling the US labour market remains firm despite how slow the economy has been to rebound from a first-quarter slump.

Analysis of the markets for the next three months is further weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying Euros and Dollar strength is better for those who are selling Dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.

The UK economy could be in better shape than estimated at the start of 2015 after construction output increased by 3.9% month-on-month in March.

The sector had fallen in January and February, and private sector house building rose for the first time in six months in March, with constructions up 1.3%, figures from the Office for National Statistics reveal.

Friday brought news the UK retail sector smashed expectations as warm weather encouraged shoppers on to high streets across the UK last month. Retail sales volumes (excluding fuel) were up 4.7% year-on-year, gaining 1.2% from March, beating economist expectations of 3.7% and 0.4%.

On Monday Deutsche Bank reported yesterday that it would consider moving part of its British operations to Germany if the UK votes to leave the EU. The German company is the first of the big banks to begin a formal review into the implications of a referendum on EU membership.

Britain’s annual rate of consumer price inflation fell below zero for the first time in more than half a century, figures showed on Tuesday, though Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the dip was likely to be brief.

Over the pond, Federal Reserve member Charles Evans stated that a rate hike for the US would not be appropriate until early 2016. Evans, who has long argued for a delay to rate hikes so as not to undermine economic recovery, said the US central bank should not move rates until there was greater confidence that its inflation goal could be hit within one or two years.

Analysis of the markets for the next three months is further weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying Euros and Dollar strength is better for those who are selling Dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.

US payrolls rebounded in April, a sign companies are confident the US economy will rebound after stagnating early this year. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%. The jobless rate fell to the lowest since May 2008 as more Americans found work.

On Wednesday news broke of a disappointing figure from the US, with US retail sales month-on-month coming in at 0%, missing the consensus of 0.2% and a long way from the 0.9% previous. This is now the fifth consecutive miss for US retail sales, and has also pushed the USD index lower to the tune of 0.7% to a 3 month low.

However, in more positive news, fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, pushing the average over the past month to the lowest level in 15 years and underscoring labour-market strength.

On Monday we saw the Bank of England hold Interest Rates at 0.5% for another month. Due to the Election this announcement was delayed, we are now into the sixth consecutive year with interest rates being this low. The rate has cut return on savings but has benefited mortgage borrowers due to lower repayments.

UK industrial production rose the most since September 2014 as oil and gas extraction surged and manufacturing increased for a second month.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has suggested he’s in favour of the Tories holding an early referendum on Britain’s membership to the European Union. Carney said that the planned vote on EU membership should be held “as soon as necessary” in an interview on Thursday.

Turning to Europe, the Euro strengthened across the board after Greece made progress on its debt obligations, transferring €750m in debt interest to the IMF – a day ahead of the deadline. However, news emerged on Thursday that Greece was forced to use an emergency account to make their debt interest payment to the International Monetary Fund.

Analysis of the markets in the next three months is further weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying Euros and Dollar strength is better for those who are selling Dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.

Bank holiday Monday saw the release of the Markit Manufacturing data for Europe. Manufacturing growth across the currency zone as a whole eased off in April from March’s 10-month high. With the reading coming in at 52, which is just down on the revised figure of 52.2 for the previous month.

Manufacturers also raised average selling prices for the first time since August 2014, news that will reassure policymakers at the European Central Bank after launching a large-scale quantitative easing programme in an attempt to head off deflation.

The US trade deficit widened in March to the highest level in more than six years, fuelled by a record surge in imports as commercial activity resumed at West Coast ports following a resolution to labour disputes. The gap increased 43.1%, the biggest jump in 18 years, to $51.4 billion, the largest since October 2008.

The chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has warned stock market levels present ‘potential dangers’ when speaking at an IMF conference on Wednesday and said that this is something that the US central bank will be watching closely.

The Pound rallied against a host of its major counterparts on Friday morning as the initial UK election results suggest David Cameron will remain as Prime Minister.

The FTSE 100 opened higher in London, as investors welcomed the end of election uncertainty. Analysts said sterling jumped because the projected result meant the government’s agenda was likely to stay consistent.

Analysis of the markets in the next three months is further weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying Euros and Dollar strength is better for those who are selling Dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.

On Monday, according to a report by the British Chambers of commerce, the majority of British exporters saw their sales grow last year. 59% of businesses sending their goods overseas recorded sales growth in 2014. Director General of the BCB, John Longworth, said while he was encouraged by the results, politicians needed to do more to support new exporters and close Britain’s trade deficit.

Tuesday brought news that Britain’s economy slowed sharply in the first three months of 2015, gross domestic product grew by 0.3% January-March, the slowest quarterly rate since the end of 2012. The UK’s initial estimate of Q1 GDP growth was 0.3%, below expectations for a 0.5% expansion, and half the pace of Q4 2014 growth. Sterling initially fell on the disappointment but quickly recovered.

We also saw an incredibly disappointing GDP figure from the US, with the QoQ growth coming in at 0.2% against a 1.1% consensus, which was the lowest growth figure since June 2014. Treasuries and US equities both initially saw a knee-jerk reaction, however, the moves were not sustained, as the statement did not hint at a change in policy stance.

The Euro strengthened against a host of currencies on Thursday after the Euro-zone ended four months of deflation in April with consumer prices unchanged from last year’s levels, removing the threat of persistent price declines as energy costs pushed up in the month.

Analysts had begun questioning whether the ECB will need to carry out quantitative easing all the way through to September 2016, the data suggested otherwise which boosted the currency.

Our analysis of the markets in the next three months is further weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying Euros and Dollar strength is better for those who are selling Dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.

Monday brought news that Britain’s economy created the largest number of new jobs in nearly a year and unemployment hit its lowest rate since mid-2008. This market data came from the last such report before what will be a closely fought election on 7 May.

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee announced a unanimous decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. The key announcement was all of the members deciding that the next interest rate adjustment would be to the upside, eliminating concerns over interest rate cuts due to low inflation. These comments caused a sharp rise of the Pound, which gained over 1% against both the Euro and the Dollar.

Also on Monday, the US Dollar managed to make gains against most of its counterparts; however, this seemed to be more sentiment based, as there was a lack of data released from the US.

The Dollar weakened on Thursday after unemployment claims came out above forecast, despite remaining below 300,000 for seven weeks straight.

The German economy expanded 0.5% in the three months through March and will continue to grow at that pace in the remaining quarters of the year based on forecasts.

Thursday saw the Euro fight back in the afternoon after French and German manufacturing came in significantly below forecast first thing in the morning. Both figures signaled an easing in the rate of growth of private sector output to near stagnation in April. Analysts believe this weaker Euro-zone expansion is a sign that bond purchases by the European Central Bank will take time to bring about a fragile recovery.

Our analysis of the markets in the next three months is further weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying Euros and Dollar strength is better for those who are selling Dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX comparison.