Forex Weekly Round Up 2 February 2015 – 6 February 2015

American consumers increased their purchasing in Q4 2014. While the economy grew at a 2.6 percent annualised rate, the gain fell short of forecasts and well below Q3.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to a one-year low of 53.5 from 55.1 in December 2014.

The new Greek Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis, met with around 100 banks, elaborating that Greece will be able to facilitate its debt. This happened despite the European Central Bank piling on pressure and restricting Greek access to direct liquidity.

Down under, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate levels. The rate was sitting at 2.5%, however, we saw it fall to 2.25% making the currency weaker.

Here in the UK, growth across British construction companies rebounded in January after a slow end to 2014. The construction purchasing managers’ index rose to 59.1 from a 17-month low in December 2014 of 57.6.

Growth across housing, commercial and civil engineering meant there was increased optimism in the market. It came as no great surprise that the Bank of England held interest rates at 0.5% for the 71st month in a row.

Forex Weekly Round Up 26 January 2015 – 30 January 2015

Inflation dropped to the joint record low of 0.5% in December, driven by cheaper food and fuels. The expectations are it will fall below zero in early 2015.

The Pound reached a seven-year high after investors responded to Mario Draghi’s plan to stoke the Euro zone economy by selling the Euro. This brought mixed news for Brits. The possibility of a cheap holiday is attractive but brings a tougher climate for British exporters.

On Tuesday we learned the Indian Rupee reached close to its highest level since November. With India heavily dependent on oil imports, the current record low oil prices are providing a welcome boost to their economy and strengthening the Rupee.

The UK economy ended 2014 with its best year since 2007. The economy grew 2.6% in 2014. Despite growth being less than forecast, this is the eighth straight period of expansion and the best year since 2007.

Wednesday’s market news also showed US consumer confidence improved significantly in January, hitting the highest level since 2007. It now stands at 102.9, up from 93.1 in December.

Low investor confidence was reported in the Eurozone. Greece’s new leaders began to scrap measures that were planned as conditions of the country’s bailout package. The new government said it would reverse privatisation and re-hire some public sector workers. As a result, the Athens stock market plunged by 9%.

UK 10-year bond yields fell to a record low of 1.402% today, as investors rushed to plough cash into the bonds – regarded as ‘safe’.

Over in the US, the labour market received good news when the jobless figures were released. US initial jobless figures fell sharply to 265,000, the lowest level since 15 April 2000.

Forex Weekly Round Up 19 January 2015 – 23 January 2015

On Monday we learned the cost of living in the US had declined by the most in six years. This was a reflection of the lower energy costs that are keeping inflation from rising. Also, consumer confidence jumped in January to an 11-year high; fuelled by steady jobs growth and falling gas prices. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 98.2 from 93.6 in December. The rise to 98.2 is the highest the Index has been since January 2004.

Tuesday brought news that Denmark’s central bank had cut interest rates by 0.15% to -0.2% in an effort to slow down the gains the Krone made against the Euro.

The Dollar strengthened after China announced its economy had not slowed as previously feared. The Chinese economy grew 7.4% in 2014, just missing the official forecast of 7.5%.

Wednesday brought the highest German investor confidence in 11 months, as the European central bank prepared for its quantitive easing programme.

US homebuilder confidence was down by one point to 57. Readings above 50 show builders are optimistic about sales and January marks the seventh consecutive month the index has been over 50.

Our market report on Thursday showed the Pound weakened as the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee made its first unanimous decision on interest rates since July. Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty dropped their vote for an interest rate rise. In more positive news, UK unemployment dropped to a six-year low of 5.8%. The forecast drop from 6% was to 5.9%.

The Euro strengthened on news there would be €50 billion each month until the end of 2016 in quantitive easing but the early gains were lost during trading later in the day.

On Friday we learned the actual scale of the quantitive easing programme – €60 billion each month. This was much higher than expected and brings the total programme to €1.26 trillion.

The Dollar strengthened despite uncertainty in the market and disappointing jobs figures in the US.

Forex Weekly Round Up 12 January 2015 – 16 January 2015

Here is our market summary for the week commencing 12 January 2015.

UK manufacturing output rose the most in November, even though total industrial production was down due to maintenance at some North Sea oil fields.

Also in the UK, the supermarket price wars were in full swing. A petrol station in the Midlands became the first in the country to charge less than £1 for a litre of petrol. The lowest price since 2009.

The Pound climbed for a sixth day against the Euro and reached its strongest level in six years on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank scrapped its currency ceiling and cut their interest rates down to -0.75%. On this news, the Swiss Franc gained 27% and 28% against the Euro and US Dollar respectively.

Over in the US, a rise in employment in December marked the end of the best year for the labour market since 1999. 252,000 jobs added in December followed a 353,000 rise in November, which was higher than expected.

The main talking point in Europe was Greece. Greek bonds rallied after the country’s Prime Minister promised to ease Greek austerity in an attempt to win votes.

The World Bank reduced its growth forecast for the Eurozone to 1.1% in 2015. It also called for more quantitive easing to stimulate the economy. In addition, the European Court of Justice stated that the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme appears to be legal, as long as certain conditions are met. The OMT programme is designed to help a struggling Eurozone member state by reducing its borrowing costs.

Forex Weekly Round Up 5 January 2015 – 9 January 2015

Here is our market summary for the week commencing 5 January 2015.

The Eurozone ended 2014 with its worst quarter for over a year. The continuing downturn in France and Italy, along with a softening performance by Germany has hampered growth in the Eurozone. Continued fears cheap oil will tip the region into deflation fuelled calls for the European Central Bank to stimulate prices in the economy. The Euro hit a nine-year low against the Dollar, after the decrease in German manufacturing.

Growth in the UK service sector was slower than had been predicted, giving weight to the argument that the economy lost upward momentum at the end of 2014. The Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 55.8 from 58.6 in November – the lowest since May 2013. This loss of momentum means there is increased uncertainty and some economists are commenting the upturn is too fragile to support higher interest rate. This coupled with lower inflation and falling oil prices means interest rate increases are unlikely in 2015.

On Wednesday 7 January, the US Dollar reached its lowest level against the Pound since July 2013. With the increasing uncertainty in the Eurozone, and Greece in particular, investors turned to the Dollar as a safe haven. On Thursday 8 January, we learned US private firms created 241,000 new jobs in December, 15,000 more than predicted. Sliding oil prices have helped the US narrow its trade gap. The US trade deficit hit an 11-month low of $39bn in November, compared to estimates of $42bn.

Forex Weekly Round Up 29 December 2014 – 2 January 2015

Here is our market summary for the week commencing 29 December 2014.

US initial jobless claims fell to 280,000 for the week commencing 15 December 2014, down 9,000 from the prior period. Rising demand is kick-starting businesses to hire more workers and lower fuel costs are encouraging consumers to spend more. Overall, in December, consumer confidence was up according to the latest Conference Board report. The index was expected to rise to 93.9 but instead rose to 92.6 from 91 in November

Greece faced snap elections amid a plummeting Euro. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said he would recommend parliamentary elections are held on 25 January 2015, nearly 18 months before his term was due to end. The yield on the 10-year Greek bond increased to 9.8pc. The benchmark Athens Stock Exchange dropped four percent after falling 11pc earlier on the same day. The increasing bond yield is a sign of heightened weakness in opinion of the Greek economy.

Here in the UK, the pace of house price growth continued to soften. Growth was down to 7.2pc in December from 8.5pc in November. This is the fourth consecutive month where annual prices have moderated.

 

 

Forex Weekly Round Up – 22 December 2014 – 26 December 2014

Here is our market summary for the week commencing 22 December 2014.

Financial services firm EY, reported more of the UK’s largest listed companies issued profit warnings than in any year since the financial crisis. During the 12 months to mid-December 2014, 87 profit warnings were issued by FTSE350 companies – 12 more than in 2013. On Tuesday The Bank of England’s financial policy committe said it was worried the fall in crude prices would drive the Eurozone closer to deflation. On Wednesday figures were released showing GDP grew by 0.7pc in July – September, slowing slightly from 0.8pc between April – June.

On Monday the Dollar matched a two-year high against the Euro. This came amid speculation the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates as early as April 2015. On Tuesday we learned the US housing market recovery is beginning to look shaky. After two months of increases, sales of existing homes fell to a six-month low in November. Orders for US durable goods unexpectedly declined in November as investment became static and there was weaker demand for military goods.

Forex Weekly Round Up – 15 December 2014 – 19 December 2014

Here is our market summary for the week commencing 15 December 2014.

In the UK, figures released by LSL property services showed house price growth increased to 11.3pc in November, up from 11pc in October. First-time buyers borrowed 22pc more than in October 2014 compared with October 2013. They also borrowed 10pc more than in September 2014, based on figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Inflation fell to just 1pc after plunging oil prices were fed through to UK consumers.

In November, US industrial production hit its highest levels since May 2010. US manufacturing is supporting economic growth. The weak oil price cut the cost of gasoline. The original expectation was prices to fall 0.1pc in November but in reality they fell by 0.3pc. New figures released show the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell as the US economy continued to show improvement.

Russia’s Central Bank made a drastic interest rate move, increasing its key rate to 17pc from 10.5pc.

The Indian rupee fell to 11-month lows on speculation importers increased dollar purchases before the year end.