On Monday the Dollar had a mixed day after an extremely negative trade balance was released from China, showing exports fell by 14.6%. With the consensus being a drop of 45.35 billion dollars, this has caused a lack of confidence in China leaving analysts investing their money in the Dollar’s safe haven status.

The Euro fell broadly on Wednesday after the European Central Bank kept borrowing rates unchanged as expected and kept a dovish policy bias despite a recent pick-up in economic activity.

British consumer price inflation held steady at a record-low 0% in March, boosting households’ disposable income before the upcoming May election. The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.2% between February and March, however, compared with a year earlier prices were unchanged, in line with economists’ forecasts.

On Friday, the Pound gained over 2% against the Dollar since the start of the week. These gains were compounded by disappointing figures from the US on Thursday.

Our analysis of the markets in the next three months is further weakness in the euro and strengthening of the dollar. Weakness in the euro is good for those who are buying euros and dollar strength is better for those who are selling dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy dollars and sell euros should consider a forward contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX analysis.

The highlight of the Easter weekend for the US Dollar was the release of the non-farm payrolls on Friday, coming in at a disappointing 126k against a consensus of 245k – the lowest we’ve seen since October 2014. The initial reaction caused a vast sell off of the Dollar, however, a lot of retracement was seen as we headed closer to the opening of the European sessions.

The Dollar strengthened significantly against its major counterparts on Thursday afternoon after the best unemployment figure from the US in 15 years boosted speculation the interest hike may happen sooner rather than later.

Activity in the UK’s services sector surged in March to its highest level in seven months. Reports also showed businesses in the sector are more optimistic about their long-term outlook. It added uncertainty about the outcome of the general election has caused some jitters amongst UK firms.

The UK’s benchmark interest rate stayed at the record low of 0.5%, where it has stayed since March 2009. The central bank also held the size of its bond purchases under the quantitative easing program at £375 billion ($554 billion). This month’s decision came ahead of a general election in May that is expected to be the closest-fought in a generation.

Our analysis of the markets in the next three months is further weakness in the euro and strengthening of the dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying euros and dollar strength is better for those who are selling dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a Forward Contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX analysis.

The ONS said Britain recorded zero inflation in February for the first time since the 1960s. Inflation is widely expected to turn negative in the coming months amid the lower cost of energy and falling food and oil prices.

The UK economy grew more than was initially forecast in the fourth quarter as consumers and exporters guided Britain into its longest stretch of uninterrupted growth since 2008.

The UK Markit Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.4 in March slightly above forecasts at 54.3, which hit an eight-month high, signaling the economy is on course for healthy expansion in Q1 2015.

The U.S. economy expanded at 2.2% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, led by the biggest gain in consumer spending in eight years. The revised increase in GDP, matched the Commerce Department’s previous estimate.

Greece’s biggest creditor, Germany, said that the euro zone would give Athens no further financial assistance until it has a more detailed plan of reforms and some are enacted into law. Chancellor Angela Merkel said Athens had some degree of flexibility on what reforms to implement but that they must satisfy their European partners.

Our analysis of the markets in the next three months is further weakness in the euro and strengthening of the dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying euros and dollar strength is better for those who are selling dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a Forward Contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX analysis.

The Dollar was weaker on Friday after the US interest increase dominated the headlines. This time Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart played down the certainty of a June rate increase. Lockhart indicated it could be during June, July or September policy meetings, barring a significant downturn in the economy.

3 and 6-month bond auctions were successful for the US, pushing the yield down to 0.02% and 0.105% respectively. Crude oil prices are still having a major impact on the Dollar, with crude oil rising almost 2% yesterday from $45 to $46 per barrel.

The US Dollar has lost some if it’s strength in the currency market due to Durable Goods Data being weaker than expected.

In Europe, Mario Draghi spoke at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, where he gave a positive outlook for the Eurozone. Draghi mentioned that although the ECB expects inflation in the Euro Area to remain very low or negative in the months ahead caused by volatile energy prices.

Business output in Europe grew at its fastest rate in nearly four years in March, the Markit composite purchasing managers’ index rose to 54.1 compared with 53.3 a month earlier – the highest level in 46 months.

Bank of England policymaker Kristin Forbes has reported that UK inflation will probably keep on falling now it has hit zero. The Bank of England could cut interest rates if it falls too far. With interest rates being low people will now have more money in their pockets, which should mean more spending.

Sterling strength is likely to cause import prices to fall even further. For example, with the GBP being strong against the EUR the cost of goods is cheaper.

British retail sales rose at the fastest pace in three months in February, beating expectations and suggesting Britain’s consumer-led economic recovery remains strong ahead of national elections in May. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month, their best growth since November and up from 0.1% in January, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday.

Our analysis of the markets in the next three months is further weakness in the euro and strengthening of the dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying euros and dollar strength is better for those who are selling dollars. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a Forward Contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us for your free, no obligation FX analysis.

The Office for National Statistics said British construction output unexpectedly fell in January at the sharpest monthly rate since late 2013, pulled down by a decline in house building. Construction output shrank by 2.6% in January after rising by 0.6% in December.

Bank of England policymakers are concerned a further rise in sterling, particularly against the euro could leave inflation below target for longer. A higher exchange rate could effect inflation because it makes it harder for companies to sell overseas due to a rise in the cost of their goods. Exporters then may choose to cut their prices to make their goods more attractive to overseas buyers.

ECB President Mario Draghi spoke in an upbeat tone saying the Eurozone economy is steadily recovering. He cited the decision to begin printing money to buy sovereign bonds; lower oil prices and structural reforms in the Eurozone economies were helping to support growth.

As part of the Eurozone’s stimulus package banks took 97.8 billion euros in the so-called TLTROs, which are tied to lending to the smaller firms that are the eurozone’s economic backbone. Banks took more than twice the expected amount of long-term loans from the European Central Bank on Thursday, loading up on the cheap credit is a fresh sign that this lending will help to spur the recovery.

Our analysis of the coming week is further weakness in the euro and continued strengthening of the dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying euros and dollar strength is better for those who are selling dollars into pounds. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a Forward Contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us to get more information on how we can help you do this.

US employment was up in February as the jobless rate fell to a 6.5 year low of 5.5%. These changes could encourage the Federal Reserve to consider increasing interest rates in June.

According to the British Retail Consortium UK retail sales increased 0.2% on a like-for-like basis compared with February 2014. Overall sales were up 1.7%.

We learned that France has been granted a 2-year deficit extension. This is the third extension France has been granted since 2009 to bring its budget deficit below 3% of GDP. France’s budget deficit is expected to be 4.1% of GDP this year, because it is struggling with high unemployment.

The pound hit its lowest level against the dollar in 20 months, fuelled by a growing expectation that US interest rates will rise in June. The dollar has gained more than 10% against a range of six currencies so far this year, first and foremost by its rise against the euro. These changes are lining up the dollar for its best quarterly performance since 1992.

Mark Carney sought to allay fears that Britain faces a 1930s-style deflationary spiral after inflation fell to 0.3% last month. He said that the strength of the UK recovery meant inflation would return to its 2% target within the next two years.

Our analysis of the coming week is continued weakness in the euro and continued strengthening of the dollar. Weakness in the Euro is good for those who are buying euros and dollar strength is better for those exchanging dollars into pounds. The currency markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a Forward Contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us to get more information on how we can help you do this.

Eurozone unemployment fell to a 33-month low, indicating the European labour market is improving. The unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, down from 11.3% in December.

The European Central Bank has raised this year’s Eurozone growth forecast to 1.5% from 1%.

Growth in the British construction industry improved to a 4-month high last month suggesting Britain’s economy started 2015 strongly. However, building companies hired staff at the lowest rate in over one year. The UK construction purchasing managers’ index rose to 60.1 reaching its highest level since October 2014.

The US the ADP jobs report was below expectations. The Private sector created 212,000 jobs in February, lower than the forecasted 220,000.

UK interest rates have been kept unchanged again by the Bank of England; they have now been at their record low of 0.5% for six years. The rate was first cut to 0.5% in March 2009.

Our prediction for the coming week is continued weakness in the Euro and strengthening of the Dollar. Euro weakness is good for those who are buying Euros with Pounds and Dollar strength is better for those exchanging Dollars into Pounds. The markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a Forward Contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us to get more information on how we can help you do this.

UK retail sales fell 0.3% in January from the previous month, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. The decline in sales follows a 0.2% rise in December 2014. UK High Street shops have been reducing their prices in an effort to attract customers, the figures indicate. Average store prices were 3.1% cheaper than last January.

On Monday Greece missed a deadline to submit their reform proposals for a new deal on its bailout. This was due to late exchanges between Greece and Europe. According to reports the reforms will focus on tackling tax evasion, increasing the minimum wage, free electricity and food stamps.

Tuesday saw the best rate to purchase Euros in eight years!

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said policy makers can look beyond the inflation slump and won’t wait too long before acting to return price growth to target. He stated that the Bank Of England’s job is to bring inflation back to the 2% inflation target within a reasonable horizon and should “be within the next two years.”

Later in the week, Eurozone finance ministers approved reform proposals submitted by Greece in order to gain an extension of its bailout. The Eurogroup said it had agreed to proceed with national procedures. The measures proposed by Greece include combating tax evasion and tackling the smuggling of fuel and tobacco.

British business investment fell at its sharpest rate in nearly six years late last year, after tumbling global oil prices hit the North Sea petroleum industry, but stronger exports helped make economic growth a bit more balanced.

Gross domestic product between October and December grew by a quarterly 0.5%. That was the slowest growth rate in a year, although there have been signs the economy started 2015 more strongly.

Our prediction for the coming week is continued weakness in the Euro and further weakening in the Dollar before it strengthens again later in the year. The markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

Those looking to buy Dollars and sell Euros should consider a Forward Contract to hedge against adverse movements in the long term. Please contact us to get more information on how we can help you do this.

The Italian economy stagnated in the three months through December, failing to rebound from its longest recession on record. Gross domestic product was unchanged from the previous quarter when it dropped 0.1 percent. The median forecast called for a drop of 0.1 percent and from a year earlier, GDP fell 0.3 percent.

The Greek Finance Minister Yanis said the terms of the Eurozone’s demands are unacceptable, however, a bailout carries a long list of austerity measures that Greece is reluctant to adhere to.

British consumer price inflation fell last month to its lowest level since records began in 1989 and looks set to slow further, lifting voters’ disposable incomes as national elections approach. Annual CPI fell to 0.3 percent in January, down from 0.5 percent in December.

The fall largely reflected a slide in oil prices, which last month hit a near six-year low below $45 a barrel, as well as lower food costs. Finance minister George Osborne welcomed the figures, published less than three months before the election, as boosting households’ spending power after years of weak wage growth.

The UK unemployment rate hit 5.7% yesterday, showing the labour market in the UK is healthy. Average earnings, excluding bonuses also rose by 1.7% year-on-year in the last 3 months of 2014. Earnings including bonuses rose at a faster pace, up 2.1%. This is good news for the general public in the UK because the gap between inflation (0.3%) and wage increases is growing. This means that people in the UK have more disposable income in which to spend on goods and services.

Over the pond, the Dollar remained relatively flat yesterday despite fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, showing the labour market is making progress. Employers are holding on to workers amid gains in household purchases, the biggest part of the economy.

Our prediction for the coming week is continued weakness in the Euro and further weakening in the Dollar before it strengthens again later in the year. The markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see movements outside this pattern.

The British trade deficit widened sharply in December 2014 on a surge in oil imports making the trade gap for last year the largest since 2010. The coalition government’s efforts to increase the number of businesses exporting have been frustrated by consistent weakness in the euro-zone; Britain’s largest export market.

George Osborne warned that the risks of a very bad outcome from the ongoing Greek debt crisis has risen. Speaking to Bloomberg TV he said there is a growing danger that the deadlock over Greece’s bailout programme spirals out of control, stating that it could potentially cause serious damage to both the European economy and the UK economy.

The British economy grew by 2.6 percent in 2014, the fastest growth rate of any big advanced economy. However, it lost pace towards the end of the year, including in the manufacturing sector, which is exposed to weakening demand in the euro zone.

The Bank of England said it expects stronger growth on the back of lower oil prices but that there is little need to raise interest rates this year and could even cut them if inflation proves weaker than expected.

Employers in the U.S. added more jobs than forecast in January, capping the biggest three-month gain in 17 years. The 257,000 advance in payrolls last month followed a 329,000 gain in December that was bigger than previously reported, figures from the Labour Department showed Friday in Washington.

Greece dominated the news this week. Sources suggest Greece will ask for a longer bridging loan, until September, and also propose new measures to replace what they consider the unacceptable parts of the existing bailout. There is no suggestion that European leaders will back the proposal.

Rating agency Moody’s cut the credit rating on five major Greek banks, as fears over the country’s future in the euro-zone continue to swirl. The Athens market fell 6%, as bank shares suffer new double-digit falls.

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis presented his European counterparts with four principles for a new financing deal. Greece wants a deal that provides for financial stability, financial sustainability and debt restructuring, while addressing Greece’s humanitarian crisis.

Our prediction for the coming week is continued weakness in the Euro and further weakening in the Dollar before it strengthens again later in the year. The markets are liquid and volatile, however, so we may see adverse movements as well.